Counterterrorism: trying to predict the future
In the fight against terrorism, defence and security agencies are turning to behaviour prediction software – but just how far can this technology go and will it ever be able to truly predict the unpredictable?
The use of prediction software as a security tool has been labelled ‘predictive policing’. This form of counterterrorism has increasingly been on the up, with US-based Intelligent Software Solutions’ (ISS) behaviour analysis tool used in more than 40 countries to help determine where the next terror attack might be.
Known as Dfuze, the software was used to investigate the bombings in Boston in April 2013, and also at the London 2012 Olympics – where UK police forces increased the security presence at areas that the software indicated could be at risk of attack.
Dfuze works by analysing past attacks to give an idea of where attack hotspots might be in the future, as well as the types of explosive devices that might be used and how.
“A lot of it is based on previous MOs, on historic data,” says Neil Fretwell, operations director and subject matter expert at ISS Global, a subsidiary of ISS that works with military, counter-improvised explosive devices (IED), public safety and law enforcement agencies.
“In the past a lot of that work was done by a team of analysts in an office trawling through reams and reams of data, initially on paper but then on computer systems.
“If you bolt on a computer algorithm that can actually analyse that data for you, based on a number of parameters that you give it, it will break it down into the percentages and likelihood of something happening in a certain place at a certain time.”
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In 2014, it was announced that the UK’s National Counter Terrorism Network would use the Dfuze intelligence management tool, which will allow its counterterrorism units to store and maintain data related to incidents involving IEDs, criminal gangs, and terrorist and firearm incidents.
This data is shown in a centralised view, allowing experts to work through streams and streams of critical information, using analytical tools to help predict future trends and patterns.
Counterterrorism: trying to predict the future – Army Technology (army-technology.com): Counterterrorism: trying to predict the future